The Changing Summer Cinema Game [Podcast]
The summer box office brought billions but few blockbusters, leaving audiences with a chorus of “fine.” In this episode, John and Danny dig into why standout hits are disappearing, what filmmakers can do to win back audiences, and why the spec market might be the brightest news for writers in years. Plus, stick around for some hilarious blind film rankings that prove no movie is safe.
Full Transcript: Kinolime Podcast Episode 16: The Changing Summer Cinema Game
Participants:
John Schramm - Head of Development, Kinolime
Danny Murray - CE, Kinolime
Summer Box Office: “Fine” Isn’t Enough
John: We’re at a precipice point in the film industry. As filmmakers, we’ve got to dig into our toolbox and make better films. Maybe it’s an indie renaissance—more intimate movies on lower budgets, self-distributed. Something has to change. The numbers are fine, but… I don’t want fine.
John: The LA Times reported this morning that the summer box office hit $3.67B. For reference, “summer” runs from the first weekend in May through Labor Day. Last year (2024) was $3.68B, and 2023—the Barbenheimer year—was around $4B. So: slight dip versus last year, a bigger gap versus 2023. The economy seems better, some say there’s more money in people’s pockets, but we still didn’t get that one knockout, culture-dominating title.
John: We had a lot of films that were… fine. Where’s the summer juggernaut? I’d argue Sinners came closest—people rewatched it, we interviewed folks who’d seen it four or five times. That’s the magic of cinema. But Superman? Fine. Thunderbolts? Fine. Fantastic Four? Fine. No Maverick-level frenzy. No Deadpool & Wolverine pandemonium.
John: My take: we’re not releasing great theatrical films for wide audiences. Not consistently.
Danny: Every industry the last 5–10 years has become feast-or-famine. You’re either a standout hit or you crumble. There’s less room for middle-of-the-pack performers. In the ’90s you could build through a long theatrical run—or find a second life on Blockbuster shelves. That doesn’t really exist now. You either hit fast or you don’t recoup.
John: Exactly. And beyond that, many great films aren’t getting wide distribution. Streaming siphons attention. If you want a zeitgeist hit, you must earn the audience’s time and money. You can’t just throw something out and hope it sticks. This summer felt like “meh”—except Sinners. My three reasons for the erosion:
International markets—especially parts of Asia—have matured and favor local stories.
Consumer confidence and cost: people wait unless it’s an “event.”
We’re making safer, more constrained movies.
Danny: Vietnam’s box office used to be dominated by U.S. tentpoles; now U.S. share is around the teens. Many markets want their own stories. Also, the “event-ification” of theatrical means formats like IMAX are exploding—people want a big reason to leave the couch.
John: Maybe. I’d need more data on that one, but I still think the films themselves are safer. Too many are “fine.” Filmmakers like Kogonada or Cuarón (and in your example, Cougs) breathe cinema into every frame; even if you have issues with parts of Sinners, you can’t deny the craft. Let’s see what Q3–Q4 brings: Avatar, Wicked, Zootopia 2, One Battle After Another, Frankenstein (Netflix). Can the year recover? We’ll see.
John: Bottom line: I don’t want to spend two hours and 50 bucks for “fine.” I’ve got a 20-month-old—my time needs to be earned. Explore at home all you want, but theatrical should feel special.
Danny: Theatrical windows? Some say longer would help. James Gunn argued Superman would’ve doubled with a longer window. I think the movie was meh—retention dropped because audiences felt that way.
Also, story still rules. Take risks on the page. Say something unique. Not every film can be Sinners, but the bar should be higher.
John: Quick IMDb comparison: Superman at 7.3 vs. Nolan’s Oppenheimer at 8.3. Not definitive, but it tracks with audience sentiment. We’re not making enough great movies. Still—hope for year’s end. I’m bullish on Wicked. Less so on Avatar, but I’ll happily be wrong.
John: Tell us what you think of the summer box office. Like, subscribe, comment. Is Danny always right? And is there a worse dinner-and-a-movie date than John?
Spec Market Is Heating Up: 5 Tips for Writers
John: For all you spec writers: recent reports (No Film School and others) show an uptick in spec sales—mid-August had around eight sales versus roughly four the year prior. Encouraging signs, thanks to original titles like Weapons and Sinners. Here are five tips to get your script market-ready.
Tip 1 — Premise Is King/Queen (John)
Your premise is the kingdom: it’s what buyers are actually purchasing. The hook must be smart, clear, and compelling. Execs often ask for a list of loglines and pick from there—so your logline must sing. If I can’t “see the movie” from your premise, it’s a problem.
Tip 2 — Descriptions with Voice (Danny)
Concise is good—but concise + personal + stylish is better. Your scene descriptions are where your voice shines. I remember a script that introduced a character as “a chemo patient who got kicked down a flight of stairs.” In one line, I knew tone, pace, attitude. Avoid dense blocks; trim six lines to two when you can. Let white space help momentum—but don’t be empty; be precise.
Tip 3 — Pose a Central Question (John)
Give me a burning question that pulls me to the end. It doesn’t have to be a mystery. It can be: Will the father forgive the son? Will she get the guy? Mid-read test: open to a random page (say, 67). Do I care enough to finish? If not, your central question isn’t gripping.
Tip 4 — Subtext in Dialogue (Danny)
Every line should do more than say. What a character won’t say is often the most revealing. Write the expositional line—then say it another way that’s truer to the character. “Will you go to the dance?” might become “Got plans Saturday?” Challenge your characters beneath the surface.
Tip 5 — A Formidable Antagonist (John)
Craft an antagonist who stays a step ahead—not just a moustache-twirler, but a force (external or internal) that keeps your protagonist at a disadvantage. I remember a spec, The Infiltrator, with an astonishing villain; the pages turned themselves. Make the mountain worth climbing.
John: Follow these, and you’ll give yourself a real shot. The market feels stronger than it has in years—great for new and veteran writers alike.
John: When you’ve applied these tips, head to kinoLime.com and submit to our shorts competition. We’ll read it—maybe Meara will too. Keep writing!
Blind Rankings
John: Welcome to another edition of Blind Rankings. Danny: rank five films from 2016—blind. Ready?
Danny: Let’s do it.
The Revenant — 4
Dirty Grandpa — 3
Keanu — 5
The Big Short — 2
Barbershop: The Next Cut — 1
John: That was… a list. Okay—2017. John, your turn.
John: Bring it.
Get Out — 2
First Reformed — 3
The Emoji Movie — 4
Thor: Ragnarok — 1
The Florida Project — 5
Danny: Not bad. And yes, we all know you secretly rewatch The Emoji Movie.
John: Who doesn’t love emojis?
