Every Studio Thinks 2026 Is Their Year… But Is It? [Podcast]
2026 is shaping up to be one of the most crowded and uncertain years for movies in recent memory. In this episode of the Kinolime Podcast, John and Danny dive into the upcoming film slate to figure out what the year might actually hold for theaters, filmmakers, and audiences.
From massive tentpole releases and long-awaited sequels to risky originals and emerging indie voices, the conversation moves beyond hype to ask bigger questions: Is the box office really on the rebound? What kinds of films can still thrive theatrically? And where do mid-budget movies fit in a post-streaming landscape?
Along the way, John and Danny share their most anticipated films of 2026, the projects they’re already skeptical of, and bold predictions about which movies could surprise — or bomb. It’s an honest, occasionally heated, and deeply cinephile breakdown of a year that may redefine how movies reach audiences.
Full Transcript: Kinolime Podcast Episode 35: Every Studio Thinks 2026 Is Their Year… But Is It?
Participants
John Schramm - Head of Development, Kinolime
Danny Murray - Creative Executive, Kinolime
John: I’m feeling optimistic about the year. We went through some really interesting films, along with some big bombs, but what feels positive heading into 2026 is that studios actually seem to be trying to make movies again, and interesting ones. That’s all we can really hope for.
John: Welcome, everyone, to the Kinolime Podcast. I’m John Schramm.
Danny Murray: Danny Murray.
John: We’re in 2026. Danny, we made it.
Danny: I genuinely never thought we’d get here.
John: 2025 was rough on so many levels, and I’m not even talking about movies. We’ll save the therapy session for later. But we’ve turned the calendar, the Golden Globes just happened, and it feels like a fresh start. Full optimism.
It’s like spring training in baseball, every team thinks they’re making the playoffs and winning the World Series… and then reality hits. But for now, we’re here. So let’s break down what might happen in 2026. First off, what are you feeling optimistic about this year?
Danny: A lot of my favorite directors are making new movies, and I know almost nothing about them, which is exciting. Every new movie sounds great in theory. I’m not even reading loglines. I’m just excited for everything. Nothing’s going to bomb this year. It’s perfect.
John: Okay, I’m going to push back immediately. If I’m hearing you right, you think 2026 is going to be a big year for the box office?
Danny: I think it has to be the best year since COVID. There’s a big tentpole release from basically every franchise you can think of. We’ve got the culmination of the Dunes, a new Avengers.
John: I can’t wait for the Dunes. Sorry, Meara. But yeah, I hear you. The slate is massive. Every month has something that could take over, Super Mario, Avengers, Spider-Man. It’s nonstop.
But I’ve gotta be honest: I’m not that optimistic about the box office coming back in a real way. Maybe we’ll see a correction, but I don’t think this is the year theatrical fully rebounds. Streaming has changed everything. I don’t know if we’re going to see true blockbuster hits the way we used to.
Tentpoles and animated films will still keep the business afloat, but I think those $40–80 million dramas are going to keep disappearing from theaters. I don’t know if we get another One Battle After Another-type breakout this year.
Danny: Thanks for calling it a hit.
John: It is a hit. But overall, I think this could be a “meh” year. You think it’s going to be great, tell me why.
The Market Shift & Indie Distributors
Danny: You’re right about a lot of that. Studios have stratified releases to the point where most big movies this year are $80–90 million and up. They’ve kind of given up on mid-budget and low-budget theatrical films, and there are reasons for that.
But at the same time, we’ve seen newer buyers and distributors emerge over the last few years, Baroque, Black Bear popping up out of nowhere at TIFF, and other boutique specialty distributors. As NEON and A24 mature, their budgets keep creeping upward, and most of their releases are now $10 million-plus films.
I think there’s a window, especially with mergers looming, for a real groundswell of new independent distributors.
John: From your lips to God’s ears. I hope so. My gut says we’re heading into something very top-heavy, a kind of “Reaganomics” box office. The biggest titles dominate, and everything else gets squeezed. I still think attendance per capita stays flat, maybe even down.
But what do we know? We’re just two guys talking about movies. So let’s get into the actual films. Danny, give me three movies you’re most excited for this year.
Most Anticipated Films
Danny: I’ve got a list. Despite all the inhibitors, strikes, mergers, AI, all the uncertainty, we still have this window where great low- and mid-budget movies are being made, and that’s exciting.
My number one is Jane Schoenbrun’s follow-up to I Saw the TV Glow. It’s called Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma. I don’t know anything about it. It’s going to rock. I think the lead from Hacks is in it.
John: Great title.
Danny: It’s going to be off the rails. I’d be shocked if it’s not one of my favorites of the year.
John: Alright. My pick and I’m not doing the obvious ones like The Odyssey or Spider-Man, is Michael, the Michael Jackson film.
Danny: I knew you were going to do this.
John: I did. And I have to admit, whoever’s playing him, his nephew or whoever, looks incredible. He actually looks like Michael. With Antoine Fuqua directing, it could be a fun ride. Will it be fluff? Maybe. Will it go deep? Who knows.
Danny: They’re going to talk about it… I don’t know.
John: I don’t know what they’ll cover, but musically his journey is unmatched. Also, I hate biopics. I really don’t like them.
And for some reason, I’m still excited for Michael. Fight me.
Danny: Okay.
John: What’s your next one?
Danny: Boots Riley is back with a follow-up to Sorry to Bother You called I Love Boosters. It’s about retail workers trying to take down some kind of fashion maven. That’s all I know.
Naomi Ackie, LaKeith Stanfield, Kiki Palmer, stacked cast. If I don’t see this at least three times in theaters, I’ll be offended.
John: Nice. For me, I’m going big-budget tentpole: Disclosure Day. I don’t know why, but I’m feeling return-to-form Spielberg, Close Encounters vibes. I watched the trailer once and stopped. Spielberg and Scorsese are those guys who rarely miss.
Danny: He just did The Fabelmans, his big personal movie, and now he’s like, “Time to make a $300 million film about space, humanity’s purpose, and God.” It’s going to be incredible.
John: I’m so pumped.
John: Last one, what’s your third?
Danny: A new Mike Leigh film. When he makes a movie, you don’t know anything about it until he wants you to. So: Untitled Mike Leigh Movie (2026).
John: That’s a better title than most movies.
Danny: No one works with actors and evokes character the way Mike Leigh does. Secrets & Lies, Hard Truths, all of it. I can’t wait.
John: My third is Death of Robin Hood, Hugh Jackman as an older, gruff Robin Hood. Like Wolverine, but Robin Hood. I’m not convinced it’ll be good, but I’m hoping it is. It’s A24, so who knows. If it works, it could be really dope.
Films That Don’t Excite
John: Alright. Three movies we’re not excited for.
Danny: Can I go first?
John: Sure.
Danny: Michael.
John: Alright, Danny is not excited for Michael.
Danny: It’s split into two parts, it’s been edited forever, there have been production issues, and you can see the backlash coming.
Also, I hate musical biopics. Stop making them. Don’t give anyone an Oscar for this movie. I don’t care how good it is.
John: Okay.
Danny: Sorry, John.
John: Wow. Aggressive.
Mine: I’m not excited for Dune 3. I liked the first one. I really didn’t like the second. I’ll watch it, but I’m not looking forward to it. Visually gray, emotionally cold. Sorry, Dune fans.
Danny: My next is less “not excited” and more terrified: Avengers: Doomsday. If it’s not an endgame-level smash, I don’t know what Marvel does next. I’ll see it, but I’m nervous.
John: I’m not excited for The Bride. Nothing I’ve seen is grabbing me yet. I just watched a great Frankenstein movie, and this isn’t doing it for me.
Danny: Last one I’m not excited for: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: The Adventures of Cliff Booth. It’s Fincher directing, Tarantino writing. It’ll be cool—but they’re blank-check directors. I want them making something new.
John: My last: the Mandalorian movie. It feels late. They should’ve made it at the height of the show. I’m fatigued.
Hit vs Bomb Game & Release Slate
John: Now we’re going through the 2026 slate. I name a movie, we call it a hit or a bomb. If you disagree, argue with us politely in the comments.
Danny: If it’s a bomb, we use Twin Peaks: The Return Episode 8, the nuclear blast. If it’s a hit, it’s vintage James Cameron.
John: Top of January: Greenland 2 didn’t do well.
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple?
Danny: It did well, and people say it rocks.
John: I’m in. Great world-building.
John: January 16: The Rip, Joe Carnahan, Matt Damon, Ben Affleck.
Danny: It’s a Netflix movie. We’ll never know the numbers.
John: Fair.
Closing Thoughts
Danny: 2026 is dominated by massive tentpoles, which creates room for indies to break out. I’m excited to see new indie voices emerge. My hope is that theaters stay for everyone, not just “movie people.”
John: Streaming has permanently changed success metrics. Opening weekend doesn’t matter like it used to. Movies can underperform theatrically and still become culturally relevant later and that’s okay.
Theatrical attendance hasn’t fully rebounded, but that doesn’t mean the death of movies. It just means you have to earn the theatrical experience.
I’m optimistic. Studios are trying again. That’s all we can ask for.
What are your predictions for 2026? Let us know.
I’m John Schramm.
Danny: Danny Murray.
John: We’ll see you at the theaters.
Kinolime Competition
John: Our previous winners, THE WAIF and MOB MENTALITY ,are both going into production in 2026. You win this year, you’re next.
Get your screenplays ready. Submit at kinolime.com. Ask questions, we’re here.
We want to read your script, and we can’t wait to get this competition rolling.
